New Delhi: India has overtaken China to become the world’s most populous country, according to a recent United Nations Population Fund report. The report, titled “8 Billion Lives, Infinite Possibilities: The Case for Rights and Choices,” indicates that India’s population is now 1,428.6 million, while China’s population stands at 1,425.7 million, making a difference of 2.9 million people. Since 1950 when the UN began to collect and release population data, this marks the first time that Country’s population has overtaken China’s.
Experts argue that India now has a demographic advantage, with its young population in a consumer-driven economy being a significant factor in driving the country’s development and presenting an enormous opportunity for economic growth. According to Andrea Wojner, UNFPA’s India representative, the country will not only enjoy an abundant supply of labor from this working age cohort, but the rising domestic consumption should help the nation tide over any external shocks, a fact well demonstrated during the Covid-19 pandemic.
India’s advantage is that it is still growing even as it is slower than before, says Chinese demography expert Huang Wenzheng. Huang notes that the key is not whether the total population of India has surpassed that of China but that India now has more than twice as many new babies as China, with a total fertility rate about twice as much as China’s, which means that India’s population will be much bigger than China’s in the long run.
However, the report calls for a “radical rethink” of how population numbers are framed, urging politicians and the media to abandon overblown narratives about population booms and busts. Instead, the report emphasizes that leaders should ask whether individuals, especially women, are able to freely make their reproductive choices. Natalia Kanem, executive director of UNFPA, said, “Women’s bodies should not be held captive to population targets.” He further added, “To build thriving and inclusive societies, regardless of population size, we must radically rethink how we talk about and plan for population change.”
As per the reports, 25% of the nation’s population is in the age group of 0-14, 18% in 10-19, 26% in 10-24, 68% in 15-64, and 7% above 65. In contrast, the corresponding figures for China are 17%, 12%, 18%, 69%, and 14%, meaning the country has nearly 200 million people above the age of 65. However, China is doing better than India in terms of life expectancy, which is 82 and 76 for women and men, respectively, whereas the figures for India are 74 and 71, according to the report.
India’s diverse population throughout its states offers exceptional potential to gain from demographic dividends. States in India are at varying stages of demographic transition, and by fostering policies that encourage interstate movement, an aging population in southern India might fulfil its labor needs from the bigger share of the youthful population in the northern and eastern parts of the country. In contrast, China’s population fell by 850,000 in 2022, the first such decline since 1961, with the number of births in China not increasing as expected.
In conclusion, India’s population overtaking China’s marks a significant shift in global demographics, and its young population presents a unique opportunity for economic growth. However, the report emphasizes the importance of ensuring reproductive rights and choices for individuals, especially women, in building thriving and inclusive societies. India’s demographic diversity among states also provides opportunities to reap the benefits of demographic dividends.
