This Diwali may not be ‘khushiyon wali’ anymore, given the rising costs of electronics and the overall inflationary pressures on the economy. Besides that, marketers and brands are worried about slumping demand, with online festive sales slowing to ₹29,800-30,900 crore between October 7 and 10, against the ₹33,200 crore reported last year, according to Datum Intelligence.
Brands are worried about inflationary pressures on electronics, while fashion, beauty and other categories are expected to witness higher order volumes.
But not everyone is concerned about these early trends.
“With Diwali falling later this year, I wouldn’t read too much into the first few days of sales. We need to see whether consumers are delaying purchases or abandoning them altogether. Those are two very different problems for brands,” Hemal Majitihia, founder of digital marketing firm Oktobuzz, said.
There is a difference between consumers waiting for a better deal and those who have lost the reason to upgrade.
“If smartphone searches and wishlists remain strong but purchases slow down, it’s possibly a discount-timing problem. But if consideration itself is falling, we are looking at something deeper, potentially longer replacement cycles or affordability pressures,” Hemal adds.
Signs of this are already showing. According to Datum Intelligence, the share of smartphone sales as part of the total GMV festive sales has fallen to 30% from 35% last year, even as mobile sales growth are expected to fall sharply to 6% from 26% in 2025.
“This year’s sales are not as heavily dependent on mobiles as they have been in the past. The consumer is spending more, but the spending is getting distributed across more categories rather than being concentrated in mobile,” Meena, a spokesperson for Datum Intelligence, told Moneycontrol.
Overall, this Diwali could see lower sales, but the product value could increase, as premiumised products remain in demand.
“The industry could be making more money in sales value while actually selling fewer products.
And with inflation putting pressure on household budgets, this distinction becomes even more important.
I believe the real indicators to watch are units sold, average transaction values and profitability, not just total GMV,” Hemal concludes.
